By this time next week we will know the 24 teams who will contest the AFCON 2025, with the final two rounds of qualifiers set to throw up a number of winner-takes-all matches.
Ghana are the biggest name in danger of missing out on the tournament in Morocco, with the Black Stars needing to pick up maximum points and hope Sudan suffer two defeats.
The top two in each of the 12 qualifying groups progress, with former champions Algeria, Cameroon, DR Congo, Egypt and Senegal already assured of their places alongside Angola, Burkina Faso and the hosts.
Central African Republic are the only side still in contention who are yet to make their Nations Cup debut, while Botswana and Rwanda are bidding to make just a second appearance.
BBC Sport Africa runs the rule over who needs what to clinch a place at Africa’s biggest sporting event, which begins on 21 December next year and runs until 18 January 2026.
Tunisia sweat on ticket
Group A is the tightest to call, with all four nations still in with a shout.
Leaders Tunisia are a point ahead of Comoros and two in front of The Gambia, with outsiders Madagascar further back.
The Carthage Eagles, who are chasing a record-extending 17th successive appearance at the finals, have placed Kais Yaacoubi in interim charge after sacking veteran boss Faouzi Benzarti.
Madagascar must beat the North Africans on Thursday to keep their faint hopes alive, while The Gambia face a crunch ‘home’ clash against Comoros a day later in Berkane.
Depending on those results, the final round of matches, when Tunisia welcome the Scorpions and Comoros entertain Madagascar, could be nerve-shredding for fans of all four countries.
Group B looks more straightforward, with Morocco having already guaranteed top spot and Gabon favourites to clinch second.
The Panthers host Morocco on Friday and will be through if they match Central African Republic’s result against Lesotho.
Otherwise, Gabon’s visit to CAR on Monday will be another must-watch decider.
Super Eagles on brink as Zebras chase history
Image source: Getty Images
Image caption: Botswana may need to beat Egypt in Cairo on Tuesday – having lost 4-0 at home against the Pharaohs
Botswana are in the driving seat for the one remaining berth up for grabs in Group C, holding a three-point lead over both Cape Verde and Mauritania.
The Zebras host the Mauritanians on Friday before Cape Verde entertain Egypt, who have rested captain Mohamed Salah.
Head-to-head record could well come into play to settle things when Botswana travel to Egypt and Mauritania welcome the islanders on Tuesday.
Morena Ramoreboli takes interim charge of Botswana after Didier Gomes da Rosa quit to take charge of Libyan club side Al Ahli Tripoli.
Meanwhile, Nigeria need just a point to qualify from Group D, having been awarded a 3-0 walkover against Libya after being stranded at an airport in the country overnight last month – although that sanction is subject to appeal.
One of Benin and Rwanda appears set to join them, with Libya on the brink of elimination.
The Mediterranean Knights must beat Rwanda and Benin and hope that the Super Eagles do them a favour by winning both of their encounters with the same opponents.
Qualification will go down to the final day unless Benin beat Nigeria and Rwanda fail to register a victory against Libya.
Black Stars look set for exit
In Group E, Togo must beat already-eliminated Liberia in Monrovia on Wednesday to extend their bid to a final-day must-win showdown with Equatorial Guinea in Lome on Sunday.
However, the National Thunder could qualify with a game to spare if they beat table-toppers Algeria on Thursday.
Ghana’s hopes are hanging by a thread in Group F after they picked up just two points from four games.
The four-time continental champions could even be eliminated by the time they take on Angola in Luanda on Friday, as Sudan will progress if they avoid defeat ‘away’ against Niger in Lome the day before.
Ghana’s final game is against Niger, but their slim hopes suffered another blow when defender Alexandre Djiku and forwards Antoine Semenyo and Inaki Williams were among eight withdrawals from coach Otto Addo’s squad, while Arsenal midfielder Thomas Partey was not called up.
Kamara back to boost Leone Stars
Image source: Getty Images
Image caption: Sierra Leone striker Kei Kamara, now at LA FC, has launched his latest international comeback
Group G could see a final-day decider between Zambia and Sierra Leone, with reigning Afcon champions Ivory Coast also requiring one more win to be sure of a chance to defend their title.
The Leone Stars can seize the initiative and move level on points with Zambia if they win ‘away’ against Chad in Abidjan on Wednesday.
The West Africans have been bolstered by 40-year-old striker Kei Kamara – the second-highest scorer in the history of US Major League Soccer – coming out of international retirement.
Zambia entertain the Ivorians on Friday but know that a draw from their away match against Sierra Leone would be enough to progress on head-to-head after winning the first meeting between the sides.
Guinea and Tanzania are fighting over the final spot in Group H, with the West Africans holding a two-point advantage.
Guinea host DR Congo as Tanzania travel to Ethiopia, and Guinea then go to Tanzania in the final round.
Ethiopia have a slim chance of qualifying, but must win both of their games and hope Guinea lose both of theirs.
Cranes chase point
Image source: Getty Images
Image caption: Uganda, who drew 2-2 on their visit to South Africa in September, are set to co-host the 2027 Afcon alongside Kenya and Tanzania
Mozambique and Mali are both on eight points at the top of Group I, and either side will secure passage if they win their meeting in Maputo on Friday.
Guinea-Bissau are four points behind and hoping to capitalise on any slip up, but Luis Boa-Morte’s men need to return from their trip to already-eliminated Eswatini with three points.
Guinea-Bissau host Mozambique in the final round of matches, when Mali entertain Eswatini.
Zimbabwe are hot favourites to join Cameroon in qualifying from Group J and will do so if they avoid defeat at home against Kenya in neutral Polokwane on Friday.
The Harambee Stars must win that game to keep their own hopes alive, which would then leave them needing to better Zimbabwe’s result in Cameroon when they host Namibia on Tuesday.
In Group K, Uganda need just one point from their two fixtures, at home against South Africa and away in Congo-Brazzaville, to return to the finals for the first time since 2019.
South Africa require one victory and will be confident of beating winless South Sudan at home next Tuesday if they drop points in Uganda.
Congo realistically need two big wins to spoil the party.
Qualification in Group L is already settled, with both Burkina Faso and Senegal through with two games to spare at the expense of Burundi and Malawi.
BBC